Soft Jobs Data Cools Fed Hike Bets, Lifting Stocks and Gold as Yields Retreat

Weaker‑than‑expected US September payrolls on October 2 sharply reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike, setting off a cross‑asset rally. Major US equity benchmarks, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, finished higher, with rate‑sensitive sectors such as technology and housing outperforming as investors rotated back into growth and duration plays. At the same time, the surge in Treasury yields finally eased, with the 30‑year yield backing off from the mid‑5% range, signaling some relief after weeks of bond‑market stress.

The pullback in yields also gave gold prices a modest lift. Spot gold edged up to around $4,180–4,190 per ounce, extending the post‑selloff rebound that began in late September and reinforcing the view that the metal is trying to stabilize after its recent correction. While concerns about a prolonged era of higher interest rates have not disappeared, traders increasingly talk about being in the “late innings” of the Fed’s hiking cycle. That narrative is allowing stocks, bonds, and gold to rise at the same time—an unusual alignment. Going forward, incoming inflation data and commentary from Fed officials will be critical in determining whether this tentative “no more hikes” consensus can hold.