Gold’s slump tempts tactical bulls, but one strategist stays bearish above $4,500

After a bruising sell‑off in September, gold is starting October with a split personality on Wall Street. On one hand, battered sentiment and heavy speculative liquidation have left prices looking washed‑out. On the other, at least one well‑known commodities strategist sees the drop as a chance for nimble traders to go tactically long—while still arguing that the metal is overvalued at higher levels. Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading told Kitco that December gold futures could stage a relief rally in October, but she remains fundamentally bearish on prices above roughly $4,500 an ounce.

Her caution is rooted in the same macro backdrop that has dogged gold all year: US 10‑year Treasury yields near two‑decade highs around 5% and a firm dollar make yield‑less bullion look relatively unattractive compared with cash and bonds. At the same time, the recent slide has flushed out many leveraged longs, meaning that any pause in dollar strength or yields could spark a short‑covering bounce.

Garner therefore favors defined‑risk bullish option structures for short‑term traders—ways to bet on a bounce without taking open‑ended downside—while warning longer‑horizon investors not to confuse a tactical opportunity with a new secular bull market. In her view, a sustained upside trend in gold would likely require a clear shift in US monetary policy or a renewed spike in inflation, neither of which is visible yet. For gold investors, that makes time horizon and risk tolerance the critical variables as the metal navigates between high yields and its traditional role as a haven.